This blog is mainly about the governance and future of policing and crime services. (Police & Crime Commissioners feature quite a lot.) But there are also posts about the wider justice system. And because I am town councillor and political activist, local & national issues are covered a little, as well.

Saturday, November 17, 2012

The other 'approval ratings'

On my blog below, I analysed the providence of the 12 independent candidates who became PCCs on Friday 16/11/12. As part of this, I developed an 'approval rating' score for each. This is my own creation and comprises the multiplication of the turnout by the percentage of first preference votes cast. It is a crude measure of what percentage of the voting population gave their first vote to the winning candidate.

Here are the results for the Labour & Conservative PCCs. (All data taken from the Guardian DataBlog)

Labour (from North to South)

  • Northumbria: Vera Baird. Turnout: 16.45% | 56.02% of first preference votes | Second: Phil Butler Party: Con 25.64% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 9.2%
  • Durham: Ron Hogg. Turnout: 14.41% | 51.57% of first preference votes | Second: Kingsley Smith Party: Ind 26.82% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.4%
  • Cleveland: Barry Coppinger. Turnout: 14.73% | 41.58% of first preference votes | Second: Ken Lupton Party: Con 25.97% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.1%
  • Lancashire: Clive Grunshaw. Turnout: 15.05% | 39.28% of first preference votes | Second: Tim Ashton Party: Con 34.76% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.9%
  • West Yorkshire: Mark Burns-Williamson. Turnout: 13.34% | 47.88% of first preference votes | Second: Cedric Christie Party: Ind 22.96% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.4%
  • Merseyside: Jane Kennedy. Turnout: 12.41% | 56.18% of first preference votes | Second: Geoff Gubb Party: Con 12.58% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.0%
  • Greater Manchester: Tony Lloyd. Turnout: 13.59% | 51.23% of first preference votes | Second: Michael Winstanley Party: Con 15.61% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.0%
  • South Yorkshire: Shaun Wright. Turnout: 14.53% | 51.35% of first preference votes | Second: David Allen Party: Other 15.56% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.5%
  • Derbyshire: Alan Charles. Turnout: 14.35% | 44.31% of first preference votes | Second: Simon Spencer Party: Con 24.52% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.4%
  • Nottinghamshire: Paddy Tipping. Turnout: 16.42% | 43.13% of first preference votes | Second: Malcolm Spencer Party: Ind 22.76% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.1%
  • West Midlands: Bob Jones. Turnout: 11.96% | 42% of first preference votes | Second: Matt Bennett Party: Con 18.51% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.0%
  • Bedfordshire: Olly Martins. Turnout: 17.75% | 34.03% of first preference votes | Second: Jas Parmar Party: Con 31.93% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.0%
  • South Wales: Alun Michael. Turnout: 14.68% | 46.95% of first preference votes | Second: Mike Baker Party: Ind 32.48% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.9%
Conservative (from South to North)
  • Devon and Cornwall: Tony Hogg. Turnout: 14.65% | 28.98% of first preference votes | Second: Brian Greenslade Party: Ind 12.96% of first preference vote | ‘Approval rating’ 4.2%
  • Sussex: Katy Bourne. Turnout: 15.33% | 31.51% of first preference votes | Second: Godfrey Daniel Party: Lab 21.54% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 4.8%
  • Wiltshire: Angus Macpherson. Turnout: 15.3% | 36.24% of first preference votes | Second: Clare Moody Party: Lab 20.56% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.5%
  • Thames Valley: Anthony Stansfeld. Turnout: 12.88% | 34.7% of first preference votes | Second: Tim Starkey Party: Lab 25.85% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 4.5%
  • Essex: Nick Alston. Turnout: 12.81% | 30.51% of first preference votes | Second: Mick Thwaites Party: Ind 23.85% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 3.9%
  • Hertfordshire: David Lloyd. Turnout: 14.1% | 45.89% of first preference votes | Second: Sherma Batson Party: Lab 28.98% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.5%
  • Dyfed-Powys: Christopher Salmon. Turnout: 16.38% | 50.86% of first preference votes | Second: Christine Gwyther Party: Lab 49.14% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 8.3%
  • Suffolk: Tim Passmore. Turnout: 15.41% | 34.99% of first preference votes | Second: Jane Basham Party: Lab 35.07% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.4%
  • Northamptonshire: Adam Simmonds. Turnout: 19.5% | 30.08% of first preference votes | Second: Lee Barron Party: Lab 24.81% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.9%
  • Cambridgeshire: Sir Graham Bright. Turnout: 14.77% | 26.78% of first preference votes | Second: Ed Murphy Party: Lab 19.84% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 4.0%
  • Leicestershire: Sir Clive Loader. Turnout: 15.92% | 48.43% of first preference votes | Second: Sarah Russell Party: Lab 34.36% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.7%
  • Staffordshire: Matthew Ellis. Turnout: 11.63% | 51.85% of first preference votes | Second: Joy Garner Party: Lab 48.15% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 6.0%
  • Cheshire: John Dwyer. Turnout: 13.74% | 36.84% of first preference votes | Second: John Stockton Party: Lab 28.44% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 5.1%
  • Humberside: Matthew Grove. Turnout: 19.15% | 22.01% of first preference votes | Second: John Prescott Party: Lab 24.88% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 4.2%
  • North Yorkshire: Julia Mulligan. Turnout: 13.25% | 58.25% of first preference votes | Second: Ruth Potter Party: Lab 41.75% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 7.7%
  • Cumbria: Richard Rhodes. Turnout: 15.63% | 29.04% of first preference votes | Second: Patrick Leonard Party: Lab 24.58% of first preference votes | ‘Approval rating’ 4.5%
Some observations & calculations:
  • Average 'approval rating' for 13 Labour PCCs is 6.8%
  • Average 'approval rating' for 16 Conservative PCCs is 5.5%
  • Average 'approval rating' for 12 Independent PCCs is 5.4%
  • There were three 'two person' contests: Dyfed Powys, North Yorkshire & Staffordshire. Conservatives won all three. This will have boosted their 'approval ratings' average
  • The 'approval rating' may be function of the number of candidates standing
  • The person with the highest rating was Vera Baird in Northumbria with 9.2%
  • The person with the lowest rating was Simon Hayes in Hampshire with 3.3%
I will write more at another time.

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